Prologue
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations dedicated to meteorology, climatology, operational hydrology, and related fields, has recently announced the onset of El Niño conditions. This marks the first emergence of this climatic phenomenon in seven years. El Niño, characterized by anomalously warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is anticipated to instigate a surge in global temperatures and engender disruptive weather patterns.
The Advent of El Niño: A Global Climatic Phenomenon
According to the WMO’s recent forecast update, there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event persisting during the latter half of 2023, with an expectation of at least moderate intensity. The advent of El Niño is projected to significantly amplify the likelihood of surpassing existing temperature records and triggering extreme heat across various parts of the globe and within the oceanic realm. This declaration serves as a clarion call to governments worldwide, urging them to initiate preparations to mitigate the potential impacts on health, ecosystems, and economies. The implementation of early warnings and anticipatory action in response to extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon is deemed vital to safeguard lives and livelihoods.
El Niño events, which occur on average every two to seven years and typically endure for nine to twelve months, are now unfolding within a climate landscape significantly altered by human activities. The WMO’s report, released in May, predicted a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record, surpassing the 2016 record set during an
exceptionally strong El Niño.
Global Climate Implications: A Comprehensive Overview
The implications of El Niño for the global climate are profound and far-reaching. The impact on global temperatures usually manifests in the year following its development, with the most significant repercussions likely to be observed in 2024. The average global temperature in 2022 was approximately 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average, a consequence of the cooling influence of La Niña, which concluded earlier in 2023.
El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in certain regions, including parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. Conversely, El
Niño can also engender severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central